International Relations

International Relations · 22. October 2023

Israel's seizure of Gaza City will come at incredible cost for all parties involved.

International Relations · 25. February 2022

All through December we watched as the Russian army ferried more and more troops to their western border, the movements captured by local cell phones and dash cams with careless abandon. As the number of arriving wagons grew so too did the likelihood of war. Still, I remained confident in my earlier analysis that war was not likely to happen. In late December the betting markets put a Russian invasion probability at 40% and I felt that a pretty fair estimate. The volume and nature of the...

International Relations · 02. May 2021

This post models a potential Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine. Relying on open-source data current to April 2021, the model results in a forecast of a successful Russian march to the Dnieper in 26 days, but at a cost of 10,500 dead Russian service members and 19,000 Ukrainian.