International Relations · 25. February 2022

All through December we watched as the Russian army ferried more and more troops to their western border, the movements captured by local cell phones and dash cams with careless abandon. As the number of arriving wagons grew so too did the likelihood of war. Still, I remained confident in my earlier analysis that war was not likely to happen. In late December the betting markets put a Russian invasion probability at 40% and I felt that a pretty fair estimate. The volume and nature of the...